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Mar 26, 2020 | Alexandra Gorewicz
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This is the first global consumer shock (especially for U.S. and Chinese consumers) since the Great Financial Recession (GFR) of 2008-2009, so the fear gripping capital markets is completely justified because the consumer has propped up the post-GFR global economic recovery. In addition, post-GFR, business investment has been quite weak (outside of the energy sector and maybe big data investments) with a lot of debt issuance used to buy back stock, a non-productive use of capital.... read more

Mar 17, 2020 | Jean-Philippe Bry
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Of course, that was even more true of non U.S. central banks as interest rates in a majority of countries were already at 0%, but it is now also true in the U.S. where the Federal Reserve just lowered rates to 0%. ... read more

Mar 17, 2020 | Eric Bushell
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In a follow-up note to our recent pieces on the COVID-19 outbreak, Signature Coronavirus Commentary - February 28, 2020 and Coronavirus: Separating the disease from the market reaction - March 2, 2020, we wanted to outline our thoughts on the developing public health responses to COVID-19 and at a high level, the potential implications to the economy and the markets.... read more

Mar 03, 2020 | Jeff Elliott
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There is a lot that is known about the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the outbreak, but there are also many unresolved questions. In this piece, we wanted to provide some perspective on the course of the outbreak, including both what has happened so far and what might still be to come ? separating the disease from the market reaction. As a caveat, although I am extremely familiar with the health care sector and have a Ph.D. in molecular biology and biochemistry, I am not a virologist or an epidemiologist, so my views merely represent my opinion as a relatively well-informed market participant and not as a scientist or medical professional.... read more

Feb 28, 2020 | Eric Bushell
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Market positioning in January was extended. The combination of the U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal, the U.S. Federal Reserve?s (the ?Fed?) 75 bps cuts in the summer and a banking system liquidity surge fueled by the Fed?s $60 billion/month U.S. Treasury bill purchase program resulted in a textbook risk melt up. Exhibit A was that credit spreads tightened to post-Lehman lows. Exhibit B was the large-cap technology sector price surge. Levered investment strategies and systematic investors were programmatically swept into the momentum-driven upswing. Paranoid active managers joined in out of fear of passive annihilation.... read more

Feb 19, 2020 | Darren Arrowsmith
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On February 11, 2020, a U.S. district judge ruled in favor of a $26 billion deal for Sprint Corp. to merge with T-Mobile, creating the third largest mobile carrier in the U.S. This announcement was unexpected, sending shares of Sprint up 77.50% and shares of T-Mobile up 11.78%. ... read more

Jan 29, 2020 | Drummond Brodeur
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There is little doubt that both 2020 and the 2020s will prove to be interesting times. Almost everything we have known from a global economic, market, political and social perspective seem to be in a state of flux vs. the broad norms that have existed for the better part of all of our lives! ... read more